Category Archives: Horse Racing

Easter Weekend Races Won by Favorites As Derby Top 20 Takes Shape

Posted on by
Reply

By Steve Davidowitz | At Aqueduct in New York on Saturday, undefeated GEMOLIGIST turned in a very game performance to narrowly defeat a hard charging ALPHA in the $1 million Wood Memorial Stakes. Meanwhile, at Santa Anita Park in Southern California I’LL HAVE ANOTHER proved that his upset victory in the San Felipe Stakes two months ago was no fluke, as he outgamed a strong late bid from the betting favorite CREATIVE CAUSE to take the $750,000 Santa Anita Derby.

Surely the hard fought, final win and place positions mattered to dozens of thousands of horseplayers who bet on these prestigious races, but the key significance of the two outcomes goes to the heart of who actually will make the starting field in the 138th running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 5.

Get all your online horse racing odds at Bovada.
Don’t have a Bovada account? Join NOW.

The four horses who dominated the exactas in the rich Wood Memorial and Santa Anita Derby respectively on Saturday earned more than enough Graded stakes money to secure placement on the Top 20 Graded stakes earnings list that will determine starting post positions in the $2 million, 1-1/4 mile Kentucky Derby.

The same might prove true for DONE TALKING, the upset winner of the $500,000 Illinois Derby on Saturday. That  performance gave Done Talking $311,000 in Graded stakes earnings — good for 18th place on the Graded earnings list. But that sum is no guarantee of anything, given that there are four more Graded stakes for 3-year-olds leading up to the Derby: the $1 million Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park, the $750,000 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland next weekend, the $200,000 Lexington Stakes the week after that (also at Keeneland), followed by the $200,000 Derby Trial Stakes on opening day at Churchill Downs on Apr. 28.

After the dust has settled, Done Talking still could wind up “on the bubble” in terms of making the Derby field.

And yet there’s still so much more in Graded stakes money to be won…

Right now, after his $300,000 is counted from his winning share of the Illinois Derby, Done Talking has $311,000 in Graded stakes earnings, which puts him in 18th place. But the top 20 list could and probably will go through many changes as we go through the final four Derby preps cited above.

Of course, there are at least two, probably three horses already on the list who will not likely run in the Kentucky Derby — even with sufficient Graded stakes earnings. Specifically:

HERO OF ORDER (#7 on the list): the 109-1 winner of the Louisiana Derby whose connections would have to spend $200,000 to make him a supplementary to the Derby. Right now his people say they may pay $100,000 to make him eligible for the Preakness, but even if they do put up the sizeable supplementary fees for either race, Hero of Honor would be placed behind any regularly nominated horse whose connections officially enter the race.

DRILL (#16), who must show sharp improvement in a two turn race is trainer Bob Baffert goes ahead with his tentative plan to put Drill in the 1-1/16 mile Lexington Stakes.

ON FIRE BABY, (#17): a talented filly who is 90 percent likely to go in the Kentucky Oaks, the day before the Kentucky Derby.

Even with those probable defections from the top 20, so much Graded Stakes money is still up for grabs that considerable movement from behind the top 20 seems more than likely to push horses such as Done Taking out of America’s most famous race, with one final caveat that could let them back in.

This year, for the first time in history, after Churchill Downs takes official Derby entries on Wednesday, May 4 as usual, the rules have been changed to allow for as many as 23 horses. This means there will be a Derby ‘also eligible list’ consisting of as many as three extra horses who will remain eligible to get into the race should any in the top 20 suddenly scratch out for any reason before Friday morning.

So, at the bottom line, we might know that GEMOLIGIST, ALPHA, I’LL HAVE ANOTHER and CREATIVE CAUSE who ran so strongly on Saturday will be serious contenders at Churchill Downs next month. And we might believe that HANSEN and UNION RAGS also will be formidable Derby contenders, but we might not know who exactly will be in final Derby field until two days after entries are drawn — the day before the race is scheduled to be run.

The Kentucky Derby is only a few weeks away. Triple Crown betting at Bovada Racebook is here.

Vegas Online Casino

The Top Horses Prepare For The Kentucky Derby – Santa Anita Derby Betting

Posted on by
Reply

Who: Thoroughbreds – Creative Cause, Liaison and I’ll Have Another in the SA Derby; Gemologist and Alpha in the Wood
What: Horse Racing Betting Tips The Santa Anita Derby, The Wood
Where: Santa Anita, Aqueduct
When: Saturday, March 31st

CLICK HERE to bet on horse racing at Bovada RACEBOOK

Two of the most important Kentucky Derby preps of the season go Saturday in the form of the Santa Anita Derby and the 9-furlong $1 million Wood Memorial and there will surely be some hot horses coming out of these sports betting races that will have to be respected in Kentucky.

Eleven winners of the Wood have gone on to take the Run for the Roses while 6 Santa Anita Derby winners have won the Kentucky Derby including Sunday Silence in 1989.

Brother Francis will be trying to break his maiden in the 9-furlong $750,000Santa Anita Derby, not an easy thing to do but he has shown tons of ability. He was third beaten less than 2 lengths in the Cash Call Futurity but he must break from the outside slot and he will likely need a career Beyer figure to cash.

Blueskiesnrainbows seems to be ambitiously placed. His win against winners was in a $40K starter and he was handled easily in his N1X effort. He is repeatedly proven fresh and Bob Baffert takes off the blinks.

Creative Cause just puts on his work boots and tries hard as he breaks from the rail and he won from the rail sprinting in his sports bet debut. He has never been worse than third and won despite going wide in the Grade 2 San Felipe. He is the only member of the field with a triple digit Beyer to his credit and is the one to deny.

Liaison needs a rebound race after running 4th in the Felipe while Midnight Transfer took awhile to figure it out but he seems to be improving hourly and has drilled fast for this.

Holy Candy has his work cut out as just a maiden winner.

Those that like to imbibe have a vehicle in I’ll Have Another, who has only run one poor race and he has the excuse of the slop that day. He gave Creative Cause all he could handle last summer at Del Mar.

Longview Drive has won only at some minor venues but he has the blood to star as kin to Grade 1 winner and over $1.6 million earner Pyro.

Although Paynter was impressive graduating, this is a huge leap in class.

Senor Rain will be a big price after cashing in a maiden claimer for his first win. He bore out in his only Graded experience.

There is a lot of speed in this race so don’t be surprised if Creative Cause has a lot of work to do late. Longview Drive will gun, so will I’ll Have Another andPaynter and Midnight Transfer won’t be that far away either.

Look for Creative Cause to settle, save ground, and make the sweeping winning move commencing at the 16th pole. Use Liaison and I’ll Have Another in the exacta.

CLICK HERE to bet on horse racing at Bovada RACEBOOK

The Lumber Guy has been brilliant so far, but he will have to prove he can carry his natural speed long in the Wood. Look for his rider, Cornelio Velasquez to send hard and try to steal it.

Street Life has a nice turn of late foot but he will have to provide the evidence that he is not just an inner strip specialist.

Tiger Walk is the Masters hunch play with Tiger Woods playing in Augusta this weekend but both of this guy’s stakes efforts lave much to be desired.

Alpha has trained like a Swiss clock for this race. He is coming off a career Beyer, he had a legit excuse in his only loss in the BC Juvenile and he proved he could overcome a bad trip two back.

Casual Trick will need a turn around after two very poor efforts. As only a maiden winner, he has his work cut out.

My Adonis ran well in defeat in his only race in Florida and he was 6 clear inHansen’s Gotham last time.

Teeth of the Dog was educated in the debut, had to rush up two back, and then got the diploma last time just holding on by a head. You don’t quite know how much that race may have taken out of him.

Gemologist is seeking to stay unbeaten and win his 5th straight. He got an ideal prep winning his Gulfstream finale and the place horse that day was clear by daylight.

Expect it to unfold like this: The Lumber Guy will try to take them the whole yard. Teeth of the Dog will track, with My Adonis and Gemologist in close pursuit. At the top of the lane, Gemologist will assert himself and hold enough in reserve to hold off Alpha at the wire.

Good luck, next stop Kentucky for the winners in these online racebook fixtures.

Vegas Online Casino

Recent Upsets and Wins by Longshots May Benefit Stretch Runners Come Derby Day

Posted on by
Reply

By Steve Davidowitz | It is not unusual for upsets to occur in rich prep stakes that lead to the Kentucky Derby; it happens every year. But that should not diminish the importance of the two upsets that took place this past weekend in the $1 million Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park on Saturday or the $1 million Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds on Sunday.

Take Charge Indy  is headed to the Kentucky Derby…

No doubt, the third place finish by UNION RAGS at Gulfstream Park on Saturday shocked legions of horseplayers who jumped all over this horse as a surefire winner of the Kentucky Derby after he easily won the Fountain of Youth Stakes last month. But there were cautions even then.

As pointed out in this space, the Fountain of Youth was an empty race after ALGORITHMS scratched due to an injury and the speedy DISCREET DANCER was unable to hold his form on the far turn after setting a modest pace. (Discreet  Dancer subsequently has been taken out of training for minor repairs and a possible re-start to his 3-year-old campaign sometime this summer.)

Bovada’s got Weekly Racebook Rewards!
Join Bovada today and get in on all their great promotions.

Beyond the hype that surrounded Union Rags, his narrow defeat to HANSEN in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last fall also raised a couple of questions:

Would he be able to handle tough competition?
Would he be limited somewhat when the distances increased to nine furlongs and longer in the spring of 2012?

While many blamed the Breeders’ Cup defeat on the wide trip Union Rags’ endured that day, the simple fact is that the outer lanes at Churchill were faster than the inside lanes Hansen had to navigate.

Shifting our focus to Saturday’s Florida Derby performance, most of the same people who stated before the race that Union Rags was “ready to explode,” “ready to put on a dominating performance,” were in a forgiving mood, saying after the race that he deserved to be given a free pass to the Kentucky Derby because he had a “terrible trip.”

Oh Really?

Sure, Union Rags had no real path to improve his position while he was kept inside by other horses through both turns. But he did save ground on a track that was favorble to speed types and rail runners. Moreover, when Union Rags was angled out to make his best run through the stretch — at a point when he should have been coiled like a proverbial spring—he rallied only mildly and was unabable to catch or pass second place finisher, the extreme longshot, REVERON — even though Reveron had every right to be exhausted from his pace pressing efforts.

Instead, what we saw was a colt who lacked the stretch punch that will be on call in this year’s Kentucky Derby, a race  already has several bona fide speed types who are likely to set the Derby up for the horses with the best late kicks.

The highly rated EL PADRINO ran a poor race in the Florida Derby and few could find any reason why. But if they checked the workout reports on my web site www.GradeOneRacing.com  there were ready explanations. El Padrino simply did not work as well as he did before he won the Risen Star Stakes at the Fair Grounds last month. The caution flag was up!

Meanwhile, the Florida Derby winner — TAKE CHARGE INDY — is no one race fluke. He was second in the Grade-2 Arlington Washington Futurity at Arlington Park last summer and as a fifth place finisher in the 2011 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he is now one of eight  horses who have come out of that championship ‘key race’ with a victory in a stakes.

Moreover, Take Charge Indy is a son of two time Breeders’ Cup Classic winner TIZNOW and therefore is bred beautifully for distance racing. He also had trained superbly for this important contest.

Regarding Reveron, if he goes to the Kentucky Derby, he probably will add more speed to the field that already seems to be loaded with one dimensional types.

In the Louisiana Derby, the old saying that “pace makes the race,” accurately describes what occurred…

At least it led to the way HERO OF ORDER stayed in close contention to the sprinter COMISKY’S HUMOR for the first six furlongs and then helped him hold a narrow advantage over MARK VALESKI to the wire. While Mark Valeski ran well enough to go on to Louisville, the implications of this upset can be reduced to one salient fact: Should Hero of Order also go on to the Kentucky Derby, he promises to be just another speed type who will fill up many stalls in the Kentucky Derby starting gate.

At the bottom line, this year’s Run for the Roses looks sure to have a red hot early pace which will favor the strongest stretch runners in the field.

Bovada Racebook has all your Triple Crown betting and Kentucky Derby betting.
Don’t have a Bovada account? Join NOW.

Vegas Online Casino

Triple Crown Watch Indeed: Big Weekend for Three Kentucky Derby Preps

Posted on by
Reply

By Steve Davidowitz | UNION RAGS and EL PADRINO are the headliners in this Saturday’s $1 million Florida Derby; LUCKY CHAPPY is the best known American invader in Saturday’s $2 millionUnited Arab Emirates Derby; while MARK VALESKI is the probably betting favorite in the  $1 million Louisiana Derby on Sunday.

Get all your online horse racing oddsat Bovada Racebook.
Don’t have a Bovada account? Join NOW.

All but one of those four of the above named horses rank among my TOP DERBY DOZEN before the three richKentucky Derby preps will be run. All my rankings take into account recent training moves as well as races that have been run this season…

1. HANSEN: Last year’s 2-year-old champion clearly showed winning the 1-1/16 mile Gotham Stakes for fun despite a wide psot draw and a wide run around both turns that he is not a stone cold, one dimensional front runner. As a son of PULPIT, Hansen is better bred for true distance racing than many suspect. While trainer Michael Maker was thinking about running him in the Florida Derby, he decided two weeks ago that the  Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 7 is the best option. Maker has made all the right  moves with this honest Kentucky Derby contender who did win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile over Union Rags on the Churchill Downs racing surface.

2. UNION RAGS: Looked very good winning the relatively empty Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream last month and is an obvious contender for the whole ball of wax. Is the logical favorite over EL PADRINO in the $1 million Florida Derby this Saturday. Esteemed trainer Michael Matz (who trained BARBARO) has a classy colt here with solid form may be best bred for 1-1/16 to 1-1/8 miles, but Matz should never be underestimated. Keep in mind, however, that Union Rags could not overtake Hansen while traveling in the advantageous outer lanes on Breeders’ Cup Day when Hansen was riding a relatively dead rail.

3. EL PADRINO: Game winner of the Risen Star Stakes at the Fair Grounds in late February, who has trained in OK, but not spectacular fashion since that performance. Todd Pletcher trainee will need to come up with his best race to date to defeat Union Rags in the Florida Derby.

4. ALPHA: I do not like it when a trainer — even a very good trainer — begins to duck horses or worry about holding on to a jockey for one more race when the important goal is to get your horse fit and battle tested for the very tough 10 furlong Kentucky Derby. That is what trainer Kiaran McLaughlin has done with this colt—switching race targets back and forth until he finally settled on running him at Aqueduct for the Wood Memorial on April 7. If he can hold his good form in that race and perhaps improve upon it a notch, he will remain a serious Derby threat.

5. CREATIVE CAUSE:  Was a good third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile behind Hansen and Union Rags last fall at Churchill and won the San Felipe last month in convincing, stretch running style to suggest he is on target for the Santa Anita Derby on April 7 and of course the Kentucky Derby on May 5. Trainer Mike Harrington is making his first trip into the Triple Crown chase after developing his reputation with 2-year-olds in sprint distances. So far so good.

6. GEMOLOGIST: After ALGORITHMS went down to an injury and EENDER KNIEVEL failed to deliver in the Sunland derby, Todd Pletcher still has another talented prospect moving towards Kentucky. Came out of a long layoff on Friday, Mar. 16 to demolish an allowance field at Gulfstream in a manner that suggests he definitely belongs in the mix. Won a Grade-2 race at Churchill last fall and is probable for the Arkansas Derby on April 14. That would follow the path used by Kentucky Derby winner SUPER SAVER for this barn two years ago and as a son of two time Breeders’ Cup Classic winner TIZNOW, the stamina is built in.

7. DULLAHAN: Dale Romans trainee who upset the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland as a maiden last fall, was good fourth from out of the clouds in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill and finally returned to action when an OK second to HOWE GREAT in the Palm Beach Stakes last week. This occurred after the colt was sidelined by a coughing spell in early February and despite the second place finish was am ost encouraging effort. Much better expected when he meets Howe Great again in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 14 and we already know he can handle dirt, especially Churchill Downs’ dirt. I have said it before and will say it again, I really like this trainer’s work and Dullahan is one of the few high class stretch runners in the leading group of this year’s Derby prospects.

8. HOWE GREAT: Team Valor (Barry Irwin) and trainer Graham Motion won the Derby last year with ANIMAL KINGDOM and before that Derby he looked like a synthetic track and/or a turf specialist. But Animal Kingdom worked sharply at Churchill and won the Derby for fun at 21-1. This colt seems as if he might be a turf specialist, having won the Palm Beach Stakes on the grass over Dullahan last week. But no one should sell him short because of that. If Howe Great goes as planned next in Blue Grass Stakes on Polytrack on April 14, we will need to see another  good Churchill Downs’ workout to confirm his true Derby status. But make no mistake, this is a very good horse.

9. MARK VALESKI: Ran a big race while also getting bumped a bit in his narrow, hard fought  loss to El Padrino in the Risen Star. Strong workouts for the $1 million, 1-1/8 mile  Louisiana Derby, on Sunday April 1, a race that will go a long way to prove his potential to handle classic distances. A son of Proud Citizen, who was second in the 2002 Kentucky Derby and third in the Preakness, Mark Valeski should handle at least nine furlongs,  although the female side of his pedigree says that 1-1/4 miles might be slightly beyond his range. We shall see, we shall see.

10. WENT THE WAY WELL: Strangely named colt owned and trained by the Animal Kingdom connections won the Spiral Stakes by open daylight—the same race Animal Kingdom won last year before his Derby victory! Has already won a dirt race, so we should not be concerned  if he goes into the Derby off this race. At the same time, his people think he might need one more start for a learning experience and the Lexington Stakes 13 days before the Run for the Roses is the likely target.

11. BODEMEISTER: Baffert trained winner of a fast maiden route came back to run a strong second to CREATIVE CAUSE in the swiftly run San Felipe as if he just might be coming into his own in time to really be a Derby factor. Find out for sure in the Santa Anita Derby.

12. DADDY NOSE BEST: Steve Asmussen trained son of Scat Daddy out of a Thunder Gulch mare won his second consecutive 1-1/8 mile Graded Stakes with goiod Beyer Speed Figures when he took advantage of a suicidal pace set jointly by foolishly ridden CASTAWAY and front running ENDER KNIEVEL in the $800,000 SUNLAND DERBY on Sunday, Mar. 25. This is one of the few genuine stretch running types in the prospective Kentucky Derby field. The others are Creative Cause, Dullahan and Take Charge Indy. The latter goes in the Florida Derby and should be watched carefully.
Looking for more info on Derby Prep races and results? Look no further…
When it comes to the Triple Crown – Bovada Racebook has everything you need to get the most bang for your buck.

Looking for Workout Reports, Pedigree Profiles, Performance Notes? Check out the Bovada Racebook for their betting futures and odds  on the prep races leading to the Kentucky Derby. And, to help Bovada and Gambling Beat readers make better plays on Triple Crown prep races and on the Derby itself, extensive, up-to-date info on all 418 Triple Crown nominees (including the 20 late nominees), can be found on my web site, www.GradeOneRacing.com. These Include Workout Reports, Pedigree Profiles, Performance Notes, etc.

Vegas Online Casino

Owner and Trainer of Animal Kingdom Headed Back to the Kentucky Derby

Posted on by
Reply

By Steve Davidowitz | Going into the$500,000 Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park on Saturday, Barry Irwin, president of Team Valor International, thought he might be following a familiar script.

“This is the race that ANIMAL KINGDOM won last year that set him up for a possible trip to the Kentucky Derby,” Irwin said. “Now we’re going to see if WENT THE DAY WELL is a horse who deserves to make the same trip.”

Not long after Went the Way Well scored a convincing 3-1/2 length win over HOLIDAY PROMISE in the Spiral, Irwin e-mailed this simple straightforward comment:

“I love this horse,” Irwin said.  “He’s a good one.”

Irwin knows a good horse when he sees it, having bought dozens of good horses for his Team Valor syndications — an ownership group under his direction that consists of many small and medium size investors.

“This horse already has handled dirt just fine,” said Irwin, pointing out that Went the Way Well has won a race on the dirt track at Gulfstream Park. “While we might need to run him one more time before the Kentucky Derby just because he is still learning, still green… We have the earnings we need to get in the race and we’re confident he will be a horse who will be one of the top contenders.”

As suggested in this space Saturday morning, it probably will take at least $220,000 in Graded Stakes earnings for a horse to break into the Top 20 and thus qualify for a post position assignment for the $2 million Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 5.

Went the Way Well jumped over that hurdle on Saturday, having earned $300,000 in the Grade-2 Spiral.

The next day, about 1200 miles to the southwest  on the New Mexico-Texas state border, another horse — DADDY NOSE BEST — earned his ticket to the 1-1/4 mile Run for the Roses in Louisville with a hard fought victory in the $800,000 Sunland Derby over locally based  ISN’T HE CLEVER.

Already a Grade-3 stakes winner of $120,000 by virtue of his score in the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields in February, Daddy Nose Best finished strongly to get up in time and put $400,000 more in his Graded Stakes bankroll.

Second place finisher Isn’t He Clever earned $176,000 and the Bob Baffert trained Stirred Up earned $96,000. Both horses will need to do at least as well in another Graded Stakes if they are to make the Derby field.

The big disappointment in the Sunland Derby was Bob Baffert’s CASTAWAY, the 17-10 betting favorite who was fried in a hot pace duel with the Todd Pletcher trained ENDER KNIEVEL. Both horses zipped through fast early fractions clocked in 22.48 for the quarter mile; 46.24 for a half mile and 1:10.83 for six furlongs.

Tactically, there seemed no earthly reason for these two horses to duel each other into submission. But, that is exactly what their ‘world class’ jockeys John R .Velazquez  (aboard Ender Knievel) and Raphael Bejarano (aboard Castaway) did. For their suicidal efforts, they finished fifth and seventh respectively, while setting the race up for the late rally by Daddy Nose Best.

The final clocking for the 1-1/8 mile distance was a very good 1:48.59 and the performance definitely stamped the son of Scat Daddy as a Derby prospect with a strong late kick.

At this point, it probably should be pointed out that most of the leading Derby contenders have shown considerable speed and mild closing punch. That group includes Derby favorites UNION RAGS, HANSEN and EL PADRINO, along with Rebel Stakes winner SECRET CIRCLE, the improving BODEMEISTER, the rejuvenated GEMOLOGIST and the Spiral Stakes winner Went The Day Well, who rallied from a stalking position in his important win on the Polytrack Saturday at Turfway.

Right now, the most formidable stretch running types on the Triple Crown Chase are: CREATIVE CAUSE, DULLAHAN, OPTIMIZER, ALPHA and DADDY NOSE BEST.

Added Note: Next weekend we will see a wide range of Derby contenders in the $2 million UAE Derby at Meydan Racecourse in Dubai; the $1 million Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds; and the $1 million Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park. Stay tuned.

Vegas Online Casino

Graded Stakes Earnings a Major Kentucky Derby Factor

Posted on by
Reply

By Steve Davidowitz | The two most important races this weekend are the$500,000 Spiral Stakes (scheduled for the Polytrack at Turfway Park on Saturday) and the $800,000 Sunland Derby (scheduled for that New Mexico track on Sunday). While very few horses on most ‘Derby Dozen’ lists will run in either race, we will surely get at least two, if not three automatic qualifiers for the 137th Kentucky Derby after their owners pocket the winning and possibly the second place finisher’s share of the these rich purses.

Weekly Rewards: Get a weekly bonus on all your racebook wagers, just for playing with Bovada.
Don’t have a Bovada account? Join NOW.

As most know, Churchill Downs restricts the starting field for the 1-1/4 mile Kentucky Derby to a bulky 20, when a field of 16 horses would probably be much safer. Moreover, the 20 are determined by total earnings in Graded Stakes as registered by the time official entries are taken on Wednesday, May 2, three days before the race will be run.

This year, the list will be extended to include an ‘also eligible’ list for the first time; and if a horse is scratched from the top 20 before Friday, May 4, an ‘also eligible’ will be allowed into the starting field with the order to be determined by Graded Stakes earnings. With all of that, a win in the Spiral at Turfway will be worth $300,000 in Graded Stakes earnings, which should be more than enough to get into the top 20. Likewise, a win in the Sunland Derby (worth $400,000) certainly will do the same for that horse, as might the $160,000 that will be earned for second.

Of course, we also have the $2 million United Arab Emirates Derby next weekend (March 31)  in Dubai, followed by a rush of Graded Stakes with purses ranging between $500,000 to $1 million.

In April there will be the $1 million Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park; the Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans; the $1 million Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs; the$500,000 Illinois Derby at Hawthorne near Chicago; the $1 million Santa Anita Derby; the $1 million Wood Memorial at Aqueduct; and the $1 million Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland.  We even have a $325,000 Lexington Stakes two weeks before the Kentucky Derby for horses that need to supplement previous  Graded Stakes earnings. Obviously, with all that money on the table, we are a long way from settling on the final Kentucky Derby Top 20.

Because there are 11 horses who have earned at least $200,000 in Graded Stakes, the $200,000 threshold might not even be enough for Kentucky Derby starting status.  There also are 16 more horses who already have earned $100,000 and 23 more who have earned at least $35,000 in Graded Stakes. All of these and others not even on the money list at all are just a win away from clearing the expected Top 20 Derby hurdle.

Here is the Kentucky Derby Top 20+ group at $100,000 and counting (some will be in action this weekend and virtually all will be running during the next three weeks)…

1. Hansen: $1,400,000
2. Union Rags: $1,070,000
3.Creative Cause: $686,000
4. Sabercat: $601,429
5. Wrote-IRE: $556,630
6. Secret Circle: $470,000
7. Dullahan: $405,000
8.Liaison: $393,000
9. Prospective: $365,452
10. On Fire Baby (f): $286,729
11. El Padrino: $200,000
12. Optimizer: $181,375
13. Alpha: $180,000
14. Rousing Sermon: $170,000
15. I’ll Have Another: $151,000
16-tie. Castaway: $150,000
16-tie. Currency Swap: $150,000
18. Daddy Nose Best: $145,558
19. My Adonis: $130,000
20. Battle Hardened: $127,000
21.Genten: $123,826
22. Brother Francis: $120,000
23.Mr. Bowling: $115,848
24.Lucky Chappy-IRE: $115,000
25.Gemologist: $103,855
26. Longview Drive: $102,834.
27. Scatman: $100,000

Important Reminder: Check out the Bovada Racebook for future odds and plays on this weekend’s prep races at Turfway and Sunland. And, to help Bovada and Gambling Beat Readers make better plays on these and other Graded Stakes races, please check my website www.GradeOneRacing.com for the latest workouts and pedigree reports for all the nominees to the Triple Crown races. Special and Exclusive Subscription discounts are available for all Bovada members and readers of The Gambling Beat. On the subscription page, just use the code words: Gambling Beat. 

Bet on the Derby Prep Races at Bovada.
The Action Never Stops.

Vegas Online Casino

Greg Melikov’s Top 10 Kentucky Derby Contenders

Posted on by
Reply

Here’s my updated ranking of the Top 10 contenders from bottom to top Dave Letterman’s style:

My Adonis: One of the most experienced sophomores has hit the board seven of eight times. The son of Pleasantly Perfect was runner-up to Hansen in the Gotham at Aqueduct. He needs to step up because his last victory was last fall in the Jean Lafitte at Delta Downs. Next start: Aqueduct’s Wood Memorial on April 7.

Gemologist: The Todd Pletcher trainee recently scored in a Gulfstream Park allowance contest to remain undefeated in four starts, including two victories at Churchill Downs. The son of Tiznow shares the same connections as Super Saver who triumphed in the 2010 Kentucky Derby. However, will two races as a 3-year-old be enough? Next start: Wood Memorial.

I’ll Have Another: One of his two victories came in the Richard B. Lewis Stakes in a quick 1:40 4/5 for the 1 1/16 miles. But there’s a lingering question concerning the son of Flower Alley: Did track conditions or his rivals falling short play a major role for his success? We’ll find out soon. Next start: Santa Anita Derby on April 7.

Alpha: The son of ’06 Preakness champ Bernardini has two victories this year in stakes routes at Aqueduct – the Count Fleet at a mile and 70 yards on Jan. 7 and the Withers at 1 1/16 miles on Feb. 4. While he has been working at Palm Meadows in South Florida, conditioner Kiaram McLaughlin says he’s leaning to another big race at Aqueduct. Next start: Wood Memorial.

Creative Cause: The son of Giant’s Causeway was all over the Santa Anita track winning the San Felipe by three-quarters of a length under strong handling, covering the 1 1/16 miles in a speedy 1:41 4/5. His resume is most impressive: victories last year in the Norfolk and Best Pal, plus third behind Hansen and Union Rags in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Next start: Santa Anita Derby.

Prospective: Chalked up his fourth victory in seven outings in the Tampa Bay Derby, battling through the stretch and coming back after being headed. The son of Mailbu Moon was only two-fifths of a second off the Tampa Day Downs track record for 1 1/16 miles, winning by three-quarters of a length at 1:43 1/5. His only bad race was running 13th in the BC Juvenile. Next start: Wood Memorial.

Secret Circle: The Rebel was de ja vu all over again for rider   Rafael Bejarano and trainer Bob Baffert as winner of the second Southwest division triumphed again. The son Eddington wore down Scatman in the stretch and won by three-quarters of a length. He also drifted out a bit heading to the wire. We’ll see if that costs him later. Next race: Oaklawn Park’s Arkansas Derby on April 14.

El Padrino: Another Pletcher trainee registered two impressive victories in a row at 1 1/16 miles — in a Gulfstream allowance contest followed by a nose triumph in the Risen Star. The son of Pulpit battled down the Fair Grounds stretch and survived a claim of foul to go 3-1-1 in 5 outings. Next start: Florida Derby on March 31.

Union Rags: Trainer Mark Matz is guiding the Fountain of Youth winner down the same Road to the Roses as his ’06 Kentucky Derby champ Barbaro. The son of Dixie Union has only a narrow loss to Hansen in the BC Juvenile marring his record of four victories. Lady Luck smiled on Julien Leparoux when he replaced Javier Castellano, who chose to ride Algorithms, the Pletcher trainee now sidelined with a right front leg injury after taking the Holy Bull. Next start: Florida Derby.

Hansen: The top male juvenile, second in the Holy Bull, bounced back superbly in the Gotham with a perfect performance. Minus blinkers and a change of bit, the son Tapit relaxed in his two-turn baptism, overcame the 12 post and drew off in the stretch for a three-length triumph in a hand ride under Ramon Dominguez. The Michael Maker trainee has the same record as Union Rags – 4-1-0 of 5. Next start: Wood Memorial.

Place your horse racing bets at our online racebook!

Vegas Online Casino

Greg Melikov’s Horses to Watch

Posted on by
Reply

Horses worth watching, a list of runners compiled by handicapper/turf writer Greg Melikov, should do well next time out. These thoroughbreds won 10 times, finished second four times and ran third three times since Feb. 8. They’re worth considering when developing your wagering strategy for online betting or at your favorite track.

AQUEDUCT

Sammzilla: Raced fourth early, began to alter course on turn to elude erratic rival, lost round in mid-stretch getting to rail, rallied to make up more than 5 ¼ lengths and gained second by a nose at six furlongs on March 11.

GOLDEN GATE FIELDS

Denim and Diamonds: Raced 9 ½ lengths behind in fifth after a half-mile,  came three wide into stretch, rallied from fourth to make up more than three lengths and finished second by a half-length at a mile on March 11.

GULFSTREAM PARK

Call in Rich: Raced fifth early, dropped to sixth seven lengths behind in sixth after a half-mile, rallied in stretch to make up 3 ½ lengths and gained third by 2 ¾ lengths at six furlongs on March 16.

California Quick: Went right to the front, led by three lengths after a half-mile, increased margin to seven lengths in stretch and won ridden out by 12 ¾ lengths in  1:10 on a sealed sloppy surface.

HAWTHORNE

Rare Action: Raced more than six lengths behind in fourth after a half-mile, angled four wide for drive, rallied in stretch to make up more than 3 ¾ lengths and finished second beaten three-quarters of a length at six furlongs on March 11.

OAKLAWN PARK

Here’s Fat: Took up after start, raced 11th and last more than 13 lengths beind after a half-mile, came out widest for drive, rallied from seventh in stretch to make up more than four lengths and finished second beaten a length at six furlongs on March 16.

PARX (PHILADELPHIA PARK)

Empire Diva: Raced 10 lengths behind in sixth after three-eighths of a mile, rallied in stretch to make up eight lengths and gained second by three-quarters of a length at 5 ½ furlongs on March 12.

SANTA ANITA PARK

Valley Cat: Steadied at start, raced 15 ½ lengths behind in eighth after a half-mile, came out in stretch, rallied from sixth to make up 4 ¼ lengths and gained second by 1 ¼ lengths at a mile on the turf March 15.

TAMPA BAY DOWNS

Lady of Greatness: Broke alertly, led by a length after three-eighths of a mile and drew off to win by 11 ½ lengths setting the track record of 1:02 3/5 for 5 ½ furlongs on March 14.

TURF PARADISE

Rodeo Cat: Raced sixth more than 4 ½ lengths behind after a quarter-mile, steadied six wide on turn, close well late to make up 3 ½ lengths and finished second beaten a half-length at 4 ½ furlongs on March 13.

Place your horse racing bets at our online racebook!

Vegas Online Casino

Greg Melikov’s Top 10 Kentucky Derby Contenders

Posted on by
Reply

Here’s my updated ranking of the Top 10 contenders from bottom to top Dave Letterman’s style:

Gemologist: One of the colts in the Todd Pletcher stable that has scored twice at Churchill Downs. The son of Tiznow shares the same connections as Super Saver who captured the 2010 Kentucky Derby. Next start: Oaklawn Park’s Rebel on March 17.

My Adonis: One of the more experienced sophomores has failed to hit the board only once in eight outings, including seven routes. The son of Pleasantly Perfect was second to Hansen in the Gotham at Aqueduct. His last victory, however, was in the fall’s Jean Lafitte at Delta Downs. Next start: Aqueduct’s Wood Memorial on April 7.

I’ll Have Another: One of his two victories came in the Richard B. Lewis Stakes in a quick 1:40 4/5 for the 1 1/16 miles. Some skeptics wonder if track conditions or rivals falling short played a role. Next start: Santa Anita Derby on April 7.

Alpha: The son of ’06 Preakness champ Bernardini has two victories this year in routes at Aqueduct – the Count Fleet at a mile and 70 yards on Jan. 7 and the Withers at 1 1/16 miles on Feb. 4. Next start: Gulstream’s Florida Derby on March 31 or the Wood Memorial.

Mark Valeski: He battled gamely throughout the stretch in the Risen Star, but came up a nose short after going 2 for 3 in sprints. The son of Proud Citizen came out of the race “very well,” said trainer Larry Jones. E is 1-1-0 of 2 at Fair Grounds. Next race: Louisiana Derby at the New Orleans track on April 1.

Secret Circle: Rafael Bejarano guided this Bob Baffert trainee to victory in the faster of two Southwest Stakes divisions swept by the jockey-trainer combo, covering the mile at Oaklawn Park in 1:37. The son Eddington wore down the determined leader Scatman in the final sixteenth to win by a half-length. Next race: The Rebel.

Creative Cause: The son of Giant’s Causeway was all over the Santa Anita track winning the San Felipe by three-quarters of a length under strong handling, covering the 1 1/16 miles in a quick 1:41 4/5. His resume is most impressive: victories last year in Norfolk and Best Pal, plus third behind Hansen and Union Rags in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Next start: Santa Anita Derby.

Prospective: Chalked up his fourth victory in seven outings in the Tampa Bay Derby, battling through the stretch and coming back after being headed. The son of Mailbu Moon was only two-fifths of a second off the Tampa Day Downs track record for 1 1/16 miles, winning by three-quarters of a length at 1:43 1/5. His only bad race was 13th in the BC Juvenile. Next start: Wood Memorial.

El Padrino: Another Pletcher trainee registered two impressive victories in a row — at 1 1/16 miles in a Gulfstream allowance contest followed by a nose triumph in the Risen Star. The son of Pulpit battled down the Fair Grounds stretch and survived a claim of foul to go 3-1-1 in 5 outings. Next start: Florida Derby.

Union Rags: Trainer Mark Matz is leading the Fountain of Youth winner down the same Road to the Roses as his ’06 Kentucky Derby champ Barbaro. The son of Dixie Union has only a narrow loss to Hansen in the BC Juvenile marring his record of four victories. Lady Luck smiled on Julien Leparoux when he replaced Javier Castellano, who chose to ride Algorithms, the Pletcher trainee sidelined with a right front leg injury. Next start: Florida Derby.

Hansen: The top male juvenile that ran second in the Holy Bull bounced back magnificently in the Gotham with a perfect performance. Minus blinkers and a change of bit, the son Tapit relaxed in his two-turn baptism, overcame the 12 post and drew off in the stretch for a three-length triumph in a hand ride under Ramon Dominguez. The Michael Maker trainee has the same record as Union Rags – 4-1-0 of 5. Next start: Wood Memorial.

Place your horse racing bets at our online racebook!

Vegas Online Casino

Gotham Stakes & Santa Anita Handicap – Notes for Horseplayers

Posted on by
Reply

By Steve Davidowitz | The emerging 4-year-old ULTIMATE EAGLE is the starting top weight under 120 pounds in the$750,000 Santa Anita Handicap on Saturday. This instead of defending ‘Big Cap’ winner GAME ON DUDE, who is passing the historically important 1-1/4 mile race to run instead for $10 million in the Dubai World Cup at Meydan Racecourse on March 25.

Get a weekly bonus on all your racebook wagers, just for playing with Bovada.
Don’t have a Bovada account? JOIN NOW.

Trainer Bob Baffert thought long and hard about keeping Game On Dude in the Big Cap where he would have been assigned 123 pounds, but the lure of the mega purse outweighed the fact that Game On Dude has a slightly inferior performance history on synthetic tracks.

Meydan uses a Tapeta synthetic surface for its main track races; while Santa Anita reinstalled dirt in time for Game On Dude to win the 2011 Big Cap in a close, controversial verdict over SETSUKO.

Setsuko, who won an allowance race over the SA track last month and has trained strongly for this attempt at redemption, is in the starting field under a sensible 116 pounds.

Here’s a look at the Big Cap field in post position order with their assigned weights, jockeys, morning line odds and my capsule comments:

#1 Un Oh Bango, 117, Mike Smith, 6-1. . . Won a Grade 2 stakes in January and was OK second to Game On Dude in prep for this. A question mark at the 10-furlong distance.

#2 Ultimate Eagle, 120, Martin Pedroza, 5-2. . .Won five of his last six and all except his latest score by 7 lengths in the Strub Stakes last month were on the grass. An obvious contender in this spot.

#3 Ron the Greek, 116, Jose Lescano, 6-1. . .Billy Mott took over the training of this former deep closer and turned him into a mid pack, near the pace performer with improving form. Was OK second to MUCH MACHO MAN in his latest at Gulfstream and is shipping 3,000 miles for this.

#4 Boxeur des Rues, 112, Mario Gutierrez, 50-1. . .Extreme longshot has been racing with moderate success against weaker on the grass. Would be a big surprise in this spot.

#5 Thirtyfirststreet, 114, Eswan Flores, 30-1. . .Another big longshot who was assumed to be a turf horse, but actually has a good record in lesser company on this racing surface.

#6 Twice the Appeal, 114, Christian Santiago Reyes, 30-1. . 2011 Sunland Derby winner ships in from Oaklawn Park where he was second and third in stakes there—his first outings since spliting the field in the Kentucky Derby last spring.

#7 Fiddlers Afleet, 110, Kevin Krigger, 50-1. . . .Another extreme longshot with a recent second in an allowance race over the track but realistically has limited credentials for this.

#8 Gladding, 116, Joel Rosario, 12-1. . .Speed type who won last year’s San Antonio on this surface is making his 2012 debut after showing speed and weakening late in a Grade-3 stakes at Churchill last fall. Has talent, but is ambitiously placed.

#9 Setsuko, 116, Victor Espinoza, 4-1. . . Very game second while getting bothered in the stretch to lose last year’s Santa Anita Handicap by a nose to Game On Dude. Went off form after that but recently returned with a smart allowance win and a series of strong workouts to try once more to win this Grade-1 race.

#10 Norvsky, 118, Joe Talamo, 6-1. . .Versatile performer has been in the money 17 out of his 19 races, mostly on grass. But he dies handle dirt and longer distances than most in here.

#11 Prayer for Relief, 117, Martin Garcia, 8-1. . .Bob Baffert’s second stringer for this had several Graded Stakes wins as a 3-year-old, but was wewell beaten third by Ultimate Eagle in the Strub last month and seems on the fringes at this level.

#12 Holladay Road, 114, Rafael Bejarano, 8-1. . .Improving California bred has won three of last four including a Cal bred route stakes over the track. Stepping up in class here, but this is not the strongest Big Cap field in the race’s 75 year history.

#13 Victory Pete, 114, Corey Nakatani, 50-1. . .Useful and versatile sort with many in the money finishes in good company on grass, synthetic and dirt. Hard to gauge in this field and the outside post can pose a problem.

“There’s plenty of speed signed on,” said trainer Michael Prender, who has brought Ultimate Eagle to the fore. “But all I can worry about is how my horse is doing. When my horse is on his game, he’s brilliant. And he is on his game.”

Pender also will start the useful JERANIMO against probable favorite MR. COMMONS in the Grade-1, $300,000 Frank E. Kilroe Mile on turf that also will be run on the Big Cap card. The same card includes a wide open renewal of the Grade-1, $300,000 Las Virgines for 3-year-old fillies at one mile on the main track.

Hanson favored in Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct

Back east, 3,000 miles away, HANSEN, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner over UNION RAGS last fall, will make his second start of the year in the $400,000 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on Saturday. This will be his second outing of the year and his first since Hansen suffered his first career defeat Jan 29 at Gulfstream Park when ALGORITHMS drew off to a five length win in the Holy Bull Stakes. (Algorithms subsequently has been injured and is out of the Triple Crown chase.)

Trainer Michael Maker said at the time that Hansen “was not cranked up for his best” but supposedly he is now and will get a chance to prove it in the Gotham.

Hansen will break from post 12 of 13 as the 6-5 morning line favorite, with Ramon Dominguez in the saddle. Among Hansen’s most likely rivals is MY ADONIS, who was right behind Hansen in the one mile Holy Bull when third and drew the favorable inside post for this two turn race at 1-1/16 miles.

Follow the Derby Prep Races and get ready for the 2012 Kentucky Derby… at Bovada.

Vegas Online Casino